IPM Risk Engine Hub

The IPM Risk Engine is the systems layer of Agronomy Brain.

It converts:

• Environmental drivers
• Crop stage
• Pest biological traits
• Predator stability

into structured risk phase interpretation.

This section focuses on identifying amplification windows before visible outbreak.

---

Phase 1 Model - Protected Crops

Primary pests modelled:

• Spider Mite
• Thrips
• Aphids

Core matrix document:

• Ipm Risk Engine — Protected Crops

---

Risk Doctrine

IPM pressure is not random.

Outbreaks represent ecological destabilisation phases driven by:

Environmental Suitability × Crop Susceptibility × Predator Stability

Each pest is classified by destabilisation type:

Pest	Type
Spider mite	Dry Heat Amplifier
Thrips	Flowering Accelerator
Aphids	Nutrient Surge Responder

---

Escalation Logic

Risk increases when:

• Temperature trends upward over 5 days
• Crop enters susceptible growth stage
• Predator establishment is weak or absent
• Canopy humidity becomes unstable
• Nitrogen-driven vegetative flush occurs

Multiple drivers interacting indicates phase transition risk.

---

Future Expansion

Planned development:

• Crop-specific matrices (Strawberry, Ornamentals, Cucumbers, Tomatoes)
• Predator integration modelling
• Scoring logic for digital tool implementation
• Integration with Agrinomy weather uploads

This hub forms the doctrinal spine for predictive IPM modelling.

The Systems-First Doctrine

Biological IPM fails when treated as a product list.

It succeeds when treated as a system: - Environmental drivers shift pest acceleration - Pest biology determines pressure thresholds - Monitoring determines timing - Biological agents stabilise the system

This hub explains the architecture behind that model.